Market Comment

Mortgage Bonds started out with some early gains and then got a boost after a couple of economic reports hit the headlines.
Consumer Confidence was reported much lower than expectations, indicating that employment and struggling small businesses are weighing on the economy. In addition, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose in December, marking the seventh consecutive monthly increase.
For now, I recommend floating, but be ready to lock if the Treasury auction this afternoon changes the situation.

Leonard Winslow, New American Mortgage, Charlottesville
434-760-2580 (cell)
leonard.winslow@newamerican.com
www.newamerican.com/leonard.winslow
Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission. License #: MC-5112

Market Comment

Mortgage Bonds started out with some early gains and then got a boost after a couple of economic reports hit the headlines.
Consumer Confidence was reported much lower than expectations, indicating that employment and struggling small businesses are weighing on the economy. In addition, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose in December, marking the seventh consecutive monthly increase.
For now, I recommend floating, but be ready to lock if the Treasury auction this afternoon changes the situation.

Leonard Winslow, New American Mortgage, Charlottesville
434-760-2580 (cell)
leonard.winslow@newamerican.com
www.newamerican.com/leonard.winslow
Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission. License #: MC-5112

Daily Market Comment

Mortgage Bonds are starting the week slightly higher today after falling below the 200-Day Moving Average last week.

No economic reports are due today, but there will be plenty of news to watch this week, including a number of reports as well as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony on monetary policy before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. Treasury auctions are also spread throughout the week and could move the markets depending on how they're received.

For now, I recommend floating. But with all the news that's in store this week, things could change quickly. I will continue to monitor the situation and keep you posted on any major developments.

Leonard Winslow, New American Mortgage, Charlottesville
434-760-2580 (cell)
leonard.winslow@newamerican.com
www.newamerican.com/leonard.winslow
Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission. License #: MC-5112

Daily Market Comment

Mortgage Bonds are starting the week slightly higher today after falling below the 200-Day Moving Average last week.

No economic reports are due today, but there will be plenty of news to watch this week, including a number of reports as well as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony on monetary policy before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. Treasury auctions are also spread throughout the week and could move the markets depending on how they're received.

For now, I recommend floating. But with all the news that's in store this week, things could change quickly. I will continue to monitor the situation and keep you posted on any major developments.

Leonard Winslow, New American Mortgage, Charlottesville
434-760-2580 (cell)
leonard.winslow@newamerican.com
www.newamerican.com/leonard.winslow
Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission. License #: MC-5112

Market Comment

Mortgage Bonds attempted to move higher in early trading, but have since given up their gains after hotter-than-expected inflation news was released.

This morning, the Producer Price Index--which measures wholesale inflation--was reported significantly higher than expected, due to rising energy costs. Also in the news, Initial Jobless Claims came in higher than expected, indicating that the jobs picture is not pretty.Currently, Bonds have dropped beneath an important level of support at the 200-day Moving Average.

Therefore, I recommend locking at this time.

Leonard Winslow, New American Mortgage, Charlottesville
434-760-2580 (cell)
leonard.winslow@newamerican.com
www.newamerican.com/leonard.winslow
Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission. License #: MC-5112

Market Comment

Mortgage Bonds attempted to move higher in early trading, but have since given up their gains after hotter-than-expected inflation news was released.

This morning, the Producer Price Index--which measures wholesale inflation--was reported significantly higher than expected, due to rising energy costs. Also in the news, Initial Jobless Claims came in higher than expected, indicating that the jobs picture is not pretty.Currently, Bonds have dropped beneath an important level of support at the 200-day Moving Average.

Therefore, I recommend locking at this time.

Leonard Winslow, New American Mortgage, Charlottesville
434-760-2580 (cell)
leonard.winslow@newamerican.com
www.newamerican.com/leonard.winslow
Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission. License #: MC-5112

Market Comment

The serious concerns over Greece's ability to remain solvent and meet payments on their large debt have led some investors towards the safe haven of the U.S. in recent weeks, helping to support our Bond prices. Today, word that the European Central Bank is meeting soon to combat the problem has caused a shift back into Stocks and has prompted some selling in the Bond markets. In fact Germany has just come to the aid of Greece and the stock market is rallying.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday that inflation concerns have shifted toward the upside in the medium term. In the past few weeks we have seen more Fed members express concerns over inflation.

At 1pm ET, the Bond market will brace itself for the results of today's whopping record $40B 3-Year Note auction. This event could spark volatility later today.

Recommend locking on the possibility of an inter-day reprice.

Leonard Winslow, New American Mortgage, Charlottesville
434-760-2580 (cell)
leonard.winslow@newamerican.com
www.newamerican.com/leonard.winslow
Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission. License #: MC-5112

Market Comment

The serious concerns over Greece's ability to remain solvent and meet payments on their large debt have led some investors towards the safe haven of the U.S. in recent weeks, helping to support our Bond prices. Today, word that the European Central Bank is meeting soon to combat the problem has caused a shift back into Stocks and has prompted some selling in the Bond markets. In fact Germany has just come to the aid of Greece and the stock market is rallying.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday that inflation concerns have shifted toward the upside in the medium term. In the past few weeks we have seen more Fed members express concerns over inflation.

At 1pm ET, the Bond market will brace itself for the results of today's whopping record $40B 3-Year Note auction. This event could spark volatility later today.

Recommend locking on the possibility of an inter-day reprice.

Leonard Winslow, New American Mortgage, Charlottesville
434-760-2580 (cell)
leonard.winslow@newamerican.com
www.newamerican.com/leonard.winslow
Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission. License #: MC-5112

Market Comment

Bonds have been trading recently between support at the 200-Day Moving Average and resistance at the 50- and 100-Day Moving Averages…which means they could be primed for a breakout in either direction.

In today's news, Pending Home Sales for December were up significantly from November's reading and up 10.9% over December 2008, as homebuyers take advantage of today's low rates.
Currently, Bond prices are up against a dual ceiling of resistance. Therefore, I recommend locking.

Leonard Winslow, New American Mortgage, Charlottesville
434-760-2580 (cell)
leonard.winslow@newamerican.com
www.newamerican.com/leonard.winslow
Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission. License #: MC-5112

Market Comment

Bonds have been trading recently between support at the 200-Day Moving Average and resistance at the 50- and 100-Day Moving Averages…which means they could be primed for a breakout in either direction.

In today's news, Pending Home Sales for December were up significantly from November's reading and up 10.9% over December 2008, as homebuyers take advantage of today's low rates.
Currently, Bond prices are up against a dual ceiling of resistance. Therefore, I recommend locking.

Leonard Winslow, New American Mortgage, Charlottesville
434-760-2580 (cell)
leonard.winslow@newamerican.com
www.newamerican.com/leonard.winslow
Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission. License #: MC-5112

Market Comment

Mortgage Bonds are enjoying a nice day so far, but prices could change direction quickly in this volatile environment.
In the news, Stocks are trading lower on disappointing 4th Quarter earnings from Dow component Alcoa, which kicked off the earnings season yesterday. The weakness in Stocks is helping Bonds today.I recommend floating for now. But be prepared to lock if a change of course is needed, especially with Bonds approaching resistance at the 200-Day Moving Average and with another round of Treasury auctions due this afternoon.

Leonard Winslow, New American Mortgage, Charlottesville
434-760-2580 (cell)
leonard.winslow@newamerican.com
www.newamerican.com/leonard.winslow
Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission. License #: MC-5112

Market Comment

Mortgage Bonds are enjoying a nice day so far, but prices could change direction quickly in this volatile environment.
In the news, Stocks are trading lower on disappointing 4th Quarter earnings from Dow component Alcoa, which kicked off the earnings season yesterday. The weakness in Stocks is helping Bonds today.I recommend floating for now. But be prepared to lock if a change of course is needed, especially with Bonds approaching resistance at the 200-Day Moving Average and with another round of Treasury auctions due this afternoon.

Leonard Winslow, New American Mortgage, Charlottesville
434-760-2580 (cell)
leonard.winslow@newamerican.com
www.newamerican.com/leonard.winslow
Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission. License #: MC-5112

Daily Rate Lock Advisory 9/14/2009

Daily Rate Lock Advisory 9/14/2009

Monday's bond market has opened in negative territory despite a flat morning in stocks and no economic data on today's calendar. The stock markets are calm with the Dow down 8 points and the Nasdaq nearly unchanged from Friday's close. The bond market is currently down 8/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

This week brings us the release of five relevant economic reports that may influence mortgage rates, but none of them are scheduled for release today. A couple of the reports are considered to be highly important to the financial and mortgage markets, meaning that we may see significant changes to rates this week. There is a very good chance of seeing noticeable changes in rates at least one day, if not several days this week.

There are two highly important reports being released early tomorrow morning. The first is the release of August's Retail Sales report. It will giv e us a measurement of consumer spending, which is very important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Current forecasts are calling for a 1.9% increase in sales. The sizable jump is expected to come from auto sales that were fueled by the Cash For Clunkers program. Analysts are calling for a 0.4% rise in sales if auto sales are excluded. A larger than expected increase would be considered bad news for bonds and likely lead to an increase in mortgage pricing tomorrow.

The second important piece of data is the release of August's Producer Price Index (PPI), also being posted early tomorrow morning. This report will give us a very important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings that analysts follow in this release. They are the overall index and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and ene rgy prices. Analysts are currently predicting a 08% increase in the overall index, and a rise of 0.1% in the core data. Stronger than expected readings could fuel inflation concerns in the bond market and lead to an increase in mortgage rates tomorrow morning. Both of the day's reports are considered to be extremely important to the markets and mortgage rates.

Overall, I think we need to label tomorrow as the most important day of the week with the Retail Sales and PPI reports both being posted that day. However, Wednesday's CPI release is also extremely important to the markets, so Wednesday cannot be ignored either. We could see a significant change to rates this week if the major reports vary greatly from forecasts.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 da ys... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rob Alley, Realtor at Keller Williams Charlottesville
540-250-3275 (cell)
roballeyrealtor@gmail.com
http://www.robsellscharlottesville.com
http://www.forestlakesliving.com
http://www.charlottesvillevarealestate.blogspot.com
http://www.charlottesvilleshortsale.com
http://www.theaverygroup.com

Daily Rate Lock Advisory 9/14/2009

Daily Rate Lock Advisory 9/14/2009

Monday's bond market has opened in negative territory despite a flat morning in stocks and no economic data on today's calendar. The stock markets are calm with the Dow down 8 points and the Nasdaq nearly unchanged from Friday's close. The bond market is currently down 8/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

This week brings us the release of five relevant economic reports that may influence mortgage rates, but none of them are scheduled for release today. A couple of the reports are considered to be highly important to the financial and mortgage markets, meaning that we may see significant changes to rates this week. There is a very good chance of seeing noticeable changes in rates at least one day, if not several days this week.

There are two highly important reports being released early tomorrow morning. The first is the release of August's Retail Sales report. It will giv e us a measurement of consumer spending, which is very important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Current forecasts are calling for a 1.9% increase in sales. The sizable jump is expected to come from auto sales that were fueled by the Cash For Clunkers program. Analysts are calling for a 0.4% rise in sales if auto sales are excluded. A larger than expected increase would be considered bad news for bonds and likely lead to an increase in mortgage pricing tomorrow.

The second important piece of data is the release of August's Producer Price Index (PPI), also being posted early tomorrow morning. This report will give us a very important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings that analysts follow in this release. They are the overall index and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and ene rgy prices. Analysts are currently predicting a 08% increase in the overall index, and a rise of 0.1% in the core data. Stronger than expected readings could fuel inflation concerns in the bond market and lead to an increase in mortgage rates tomorrow morning. Both of the day's reports are considered to be extremely important to the markets and mortgage rates.

Overall, I think we need to label tomorrow as the most important day of the week with the Retail Sales and PPI reports both being posted that day. However, Wednesday's CPI release is also extremely important to the markets, so Wednesday cannot be ignored either. We could see a significant change to rates this week if the major reports vary greatly from forecasts.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 da ys... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rob Alley, Realtor at Keller Williams Charlottesville
540-250-3275 (cell)
roballeyrealtor@gmail.com
http://www.robsellscharlottesville.com
http://www.forestlakesliving.com
http://www.charlottesvillevarealestate.blogspot.com
http://www.charlottesvilleshortsale.com
http://www.theaverygroup.com